The “Domestic Daily” tab on the movie's Box Office Mojo page will be used to resolve this market, specifically the "To Date" column.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6718170/
If any finalized numbers in the "To Date" column (for dates December 31, 2023 and before) show a value of more than $600 million, this market will resolve to "YES"
This market will resolve to "NO" if once the December 31, 2023 "To Date" number is finalized it hasn't reached $600 million, or if the run ends and the movie stops being carried by cinemas without it having reached that point.
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The Domestic Gross column at the link given in the descriptions is sitting at $503,727,705 as of May 6th, so I don't see how it will fail to reach 600$ million before december. Am I missing something?
@NoyaV It's going to be close.
For comparison, Minions: Rise of Gru, at this point in its run had grossed 86.74% of its final total. If Super Mario Bros continues to follow a similar path, it will end up between $580M-$590M. I agree the chance should be closer to 50%. Thanks for the tip.
@NoyaV 563.85 rn, a gain of ~24.36 in 2 weeks is impressive, if it does that for the next month, this will surely resolve yes. You were right to hold imo
@RahulShah Memorial Day Weekend contributed substantially to the gains. This is headed for ~$575-580m unless it has an incredible second wind. Or if a truly dedicated Manifold user has some extra cash to spend on tickets...
Given that both Wreck-it Ralph and the sequel each made about $200M domestically, I wouldn't bet higher than about $400M for Super Mario Bros.
Edited to add: I should have accounted for inflation and other post-covid differences.