How much will "Dune: Part Two" (2024) gross worldwide during its first two months of release?
Mini
23
18k
resolved May 2
Resolved
YES
Over $400 million
·
5mo
Resolved
YES
Over $500 million
·
5mo
Resolved
YES
Over $600 million
·
5mo
Resolved
YES
Over $700 million
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
Over $800 million
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
Over $900 million
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
Over $1 billion
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
Over $710 million
·
3mo
Resolved
NO
Over $720 million
·
3mo
Resolved
NO
Over $730 million
·
3mo
Resolved
NO
Over $740 million
·
3mo
Resolved
NO
Over $750 million
·
3mo
Resolved
NO
Over $760 million
·
3mo
Resolved
NO
Over $770 million
·
3mo
Resolved
NO
Over $780 million
·
3mo
Resolved
NO
Over $790 million
·
3mo

"Dune: Part Two" (2024) opens on March 1st. These markets will resolve based on the worldwide total listed by BoxOfficeMojo when I check the site on May 1st https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15239678/.

  • I will use the number listed on BoxOfficeMojo whenever I check the site on May 1st. That means it won't necessarily have updated to include all gross that occurred in the world prior to May 1st (I doubt it will have much impact, but a day or two could be missing from the total).

  • For comparison, the original "Dune" (2021) released on October 21st, and the Wayback Machine machine lists a "worldwide" gross of $401,847,900 on December 24th (as the 21st wasn't logged). This is the equivalent number I will cite. (This is very close to the current listed total, although Dune 2 could have longer legs).

  • These markets are independent—any number of them can resolve YES.

  • Once the listed WW box office passes a relevant threshold, I can resolve that market early (feel free to tag me).

  • I may add additional markets (above, below, or in between)—the questions are independent, so this has no impact on the current markets.

  • If somehow "Dune: Part Two" is delayed again (which I can't imagine it will), I'll update the question to again reflect "two months after the release date".

  • If any aspects of resolution are unclear, just ask.

See also:

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ448
2Ṁ101
3Ṁ96
4Ṁ45
5Ṁ43
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bought Ṁ110 Over $710 million NO

@traders final total: WORLDWIDE
$704,756,121. Thank you to Dune 2 for giving me such fun markets.

Check out more box office predictions for Deadpool 3

/Ziddletwix/which-mcu-movies-will-deadpool-wolv-c9ab9ac398f6

/Ziddletwix/which-mcu-movies-will-deadpool-wolv-995ddf33a18c

@traders 27 days left til the May 1st cutoff, figured I'd add some bonus options to really nail down the exact final gross. (My apologies for the sorting—until people price the probabilities in the right order, no available sorting option will look quite right. I'll set it to high -> low once the probabilities are right)

bought Ṁ5 Over $770 million NO

@Ziddletwix Also, now that the options are pretty granular, so there likely WILL be some close calls, I'll quote again the rules in the description that I'll follow:

I will use the number listed on BoxOfficeMojo whenever I check the site on May 1st. That means it won't necessarily have updated to include all gross that occurred in the world prior to May 1st.

Luckily May 1st is a Wednesday, so my guess is it will fully contain the updated international gross from the previous weekend (& I'll check the site at EOD on Wednesday, to make sure it's as updated as possible). But bear in mind that it probably won't contain that Wednesday domestic gross (plus a few days of international gross). This question was defined by whatever BoxOfficeMojo lists on that date.

Dune 2 is currently at $630,087,406 worldwide.

Related market: "Will "Dune: Part Two" have worldwide gross more than 4X greater than that of "Madame Web" (2 months after release)"