Will Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire be the lowest grossing of the franchise? 👻🥼🔫
Basic
55
Ṁ16k
resolved Jun 20
Resolved
YES

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (2024) comes out on March 22nd, 2024. Going off the worldwide box office numbers from TheNumbers (included below), will Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire make less than $203.6M, continuing the downward trend?

Ghostbusters Worldwide Grosses:

  • Ghostbusters (1984): $295.5M

  • Ghostbusters II (1989): $215.5M

  • Ghostbusters (2016): $229.0M

  • Ghostbusters: Afterlife (2021): $203.6M

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@mods mattyb market, mind extending the close date on this one?

@Ziddletwix until when?

sold Ṁ225 YES

@Gen June 17 seems fine! closing is tricky because Ghostbusters may not entirely "leave theaters" for months and months. it's already out on VOD, and it's not going to keep earning relevant amounts at the box office. (box office trackers are already calling this the end of its run—example—and this is certainly going to resolve YES). because technically it's still earning a little bit at the box office, and international reporting can be a bit delayed (in rare cases), I think giving it until June 17 to see if it's still close is fair (and then resolve YES if the gross has essentially stopped, rather than tying up people's mana for many months), & best fits the spirit of the question (as matty usually resolved questions when it was mathematically certain).

tl;dr yeah I think June 17 is fair. if the box office doesn't change much between now and then, imo it should resolve YES as it's mathematically certain (and that best fits how matty usually ran these questions imo)

@Ziddletwix The film is essentially making just over half a million every week at the domestic box office which should go down every week by around 30% or so as well so it would need some international money from somewhere to get the extra 3.5 million required to go past Afterlife.

@Gen The market reached the new close date. I think at this point it's probably safe to resolve YES? It's only reached 200.8M , so still >2.8M below the threshold, and it's barely making any more money (it's dropped far below 100k/week domestic, down to just a few dozen theaters, and it will continue to drop). It could possibly make another couple hundred thousand, but that's only 10% of the way there.

(Or could reopen once again, but I think at this point it's safe to call it)

Done! Thanks for keeping track 🙏

sold Ṁ45 YES

@mattyb Is the closing date right? Will you be resolving the market based on the worldwide box office at that time?

@howahlah nope the resolve date is arbitrary. this will resolve once Ghostbusters leaves theatres, or this Resolves NO.

@mattyb Leaves US theatres or all theatres?

@MattCWilson all theatres, as long as it’s close. If it’s way way off and in 2 theatres, I may mathematically eliminate it.