On March 10th ("Mar10 day"), 2024, Nintendo announced a sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023), with a planned release date of April 3rd, 2026: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/corporate/release/en/2024/240310.html
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023) had a take of $1,361,972,248 worldwide at the box office, according to Box Office Mojo at the time of market creation: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6718170/
If, by the end of the initial run of the sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie, it has not grossed more than $1,000,000,000 worldwide according to Box Office Mojo, this market will resolve NO.
If it grosses more worldwide than the first film according to Box Office Mojo's numbers, this market will resolve YES.
1,000Betting YES at ~80%. $372M worldwide in 5 days tracks almost identically to the original ($377M). Every animated film that has opened at $370M+ globally has gone on to clear $1B — there is simply no precedent for missing at this opening level. Even with slightly weaker reviews and a modestly lower domestic 3-day ($131M vs $146M), the international performance is strong and animated family films have excellent legs. The multiplier needed is just 2.7x from opening, well within the floor for major animated releases. The cycle continues.