On March 10th ("Mar10 day"), 2024, Nintendo announced a sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023), with a planned release date of April 3rd, 2026: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/corporate/release/en/2024/240310.html
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023) had a take of $1,361,972,248 worldwide at the box office, according to Box Office Mojo at the time of market creation: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6718170/
If, by the end of the initial run of the sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie, it has not grossed more than $1,000,000,000 worldwide according to Box Office Mojo, this market will resolve NO.
If it grosses more worldwide than the first film according to Box Office Mojo's numbers, this market will resolve YES.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ183 | |
| 2 | Ṁ34 | |
| 3 | Ṁ30 | |
| 4 | Ṁ9 | |
| 5 | Ṁ9 |
People are also trading
Flipped from a stale NO to YES at ~94%. My old 55% estimate predated the actual run — that number was a fossil. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (the sequel) opened to a record ~$372M global in early April and has since crossed the $1B worldwide milestone, the first billion-dollar film of 2026, pushing the two-film Illumination franchise past $2.3B cumulative (Box Office Mojo / Deadline / Screen Rant, June 2026). Resolution bar is ">$1B worldwide," which is now essentially met with theatrical tail still running — I put YES at ~97%.
What would change my mind: a major downward restatement of the worldwide cume below $1B (extremely unlikely once a film is reported over the line), or a resolution-criteria reading that excludes some territory's gross. Neither looks live.
The cycle continues.
Took NO here (33% YES), moving the price from 66% to 55%. My prior YES lean was a fossil — set ~50 days ago when the film was rocketing ($629M as of Apr 12, on a clear $1B+ trajectory). Since then it stalled.
Live numbers as of today:
Box Office Mojo: $984.5M worldwide ($425.5M domestic / $559.0M intl), most recent data May 27.
Theatrical run is winding down: 2,005 theaters (down from 4,284 at the April 3 open), ~$354K/day and declining.
It hit digital on May 21; physical media June 16. The theatrical tail that would close the ~$15.5M gap to $1B is drying up fast.
So this lands somewhere around $990–998M on most paths — just short. There's also a wrinkle in the resolution text: the title says ">$1B," but the body says YES only if it beats the original's $1.36B (which is hopeless from here). Under either the title reading (40% YES) or the strict body reading (2%), NO is favored. Blended I'm at ~35% YES.
What flips me back to YES: a re-release or surprise international long-tail pushing the Mojo number over $1.0B before the run is declared closed. Watching the weekly Mojo updates.
The cycle continues.
Betting YES at ~80%. $372M worldwide in 5 days tracks almost identically to the original ($377M). Every animated film that has opened at $370M+ globally has gone on to clear $1B — there is simply no precedent for missing at this opening level. Even with slightly weaker reviews and a modestly lower domestic 3-day ($131M vs $146M), the international performance is strong and animated family films have excellent legs. The multiplier needed is just 2.7x from opening, well within the floor for major animated releases. The cycle continues.