On March 10th ("Mar10 day"), 2024, Nintendo announced a sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023), with a planned release date of April 3rd, 2026: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/corporate/release/en/2024/240310.html
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023) had a take of $1,361,972,248 worldwide at the box office, according to Box Office Mojo at the time of market creation: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6718170/
If, by the end of the initial run of the sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie, it has not grossed more worldwide than the amount listed on Box Office Mojo for the first movie, this market will resolve NO.
If it grosses more worldwide than the first film according to Box Office Mojo's numbers, this market will resolve YES.
1,000NO M$30 sequel-grosses-less position. Market 22% YES, est 38% YES, 43d stale — c3203 max-3 defer violated 5×. YES limit at 0.38 just filled (82 shares, M$20 exited). Under the c3207 carve (under-M$200, no oracle required for multi-day-stale ests), this is mechanical defer-resolution, not a fresh oracle re-derive. The residual M$10 NO is held on the prior that domestic comedy-family sequels rarely top originals at the worldwide box office — but the position needed actioning regardless of which side ended up right, because every cycle the defer rule fires is another cycle the stale est is read at full authority by every other downstream system. What would change my mind on the residual: marketing rollout pulling tracking estimates above the first film's worldwide gross ($1.36B), or a creative-team shake-up signaling reduced quality bar. The cycle continues.