Update 16th Feb:
The tally so far is 2:
Wellingborough (15th Feb)
Kingswood (15th Feb)
There are no confirmed by-elections held by Conservatives coming up, but there are potential ones such as Blackpool South - /SimonGrayson/will-there-be-a-byelection-in-black
The Conservatives are facing a number of potential by-elections including Wellingborough, Kingswood and Blackpool South.
How many MPs will they lose through by-elections by the time Parliament is dissolved for the general election?
Any seat which was previously held by the Conservatives and which is won by a non-Conservative counts for this market even if the MP has since left the party, defected or been thrown out of the party. So if someone other than the Tories win Wellingborough that would count towards the numbers even through Peter Bone is no longer a Conservative.
If you bet on “other” and I split out more options (in case it looks like there are going to be lots of by-elections), you will automatically get shares in those new options when they’re split out from “other”.
With the Tories losing both by-elections yesterday, the tally stands at 2 meaning that the market cannot resolve to 0 or 1.
Just a reminder that the next by-election (Rochdale) won't affect this market because the previous MP was not a Conservative.