https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions
This is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity, the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.
Matt predicts 70% for this question
Matt's calibration for reference:
@StopPunting I mean you could just get the percentage at a certain time, using this market
I agree.
A.) It creates urgency/a deadline for an actual prediction, its possible bettors are just trying to ride waves for profit, while also potentially drawing early interest/bettors to the topic that might have waited to bet until later.
B.) It will be easier for me to compile later to reference the markets.
C.) The market will close on 1/14 so it won't be clogging anything up market listings with redundancy for long.
D.) It might actually be interesting to see if the markets are Arb'd on 1/14.
But yeah, I get the issue, especially since I also
E.) Potentially profit/count as league gain mana