Will the United States become more authoritarian in 2024?
86
1kṀ16k
resolved Mar 1
Resolved
NO
Trump wins US presidency
+18%
on
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bought Ṁ500 NO

Resolves NO, as the score remains unchanged at 7.85

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 45% order

Intense polarization and diminishing faith in government seem to be big factors.

opened a Ṁ200 NO at 67% order

Base rate since 2006 = 7/18 = 39%

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index

Trump election chance = 45-50%

I don't understand why this is at 71%

@Siebe The "data":

This is the Ecommunist, which is left-wing propaganda, and will 100% lower the index in 2024 now that papa Trump is back. You may have had a good point prior to election, though.

@AlQuinn The Economist is left-wing propaganda? I mean, it's been a while since I was a subscriber, but when I was, its economic opinions and policy recommendations could have come from a right-wing think tank. It was what we were encouraged to read during my Commerce degree, by the same professors who were busy explaining why left-wing views on economics were wrong but intuitive, and free markets were generally good, price controls and tariffs bad.

Meanwhile, Trump is illiterate and thinks tariffs are good, among many other incorrect beliefs with which right-wingers in the US are now required to pretend to agree, so that confuses what a "right wing" economic position even is, in the US, now.

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