Will the U.K. Conservative Party lead in a national poll by the end of 2024?
Standard
20
Ṁ2966Jan 5
59%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The U.K. Conservative Party last led a national poll in December 2021; since then, the Labour Party have tied or led in every poll. Resolves to YES if a valid poll with the Conservatives leading is published and NO otherwise.
A valid poll must:
– Be a national (Great Britain) Westminster voting intention poll, not a regional poll
– Be based on the current situation, not on some sort of hypothetical
– Have the Conservatives leading, not tied, where this is based off the integer-valued percentages that are published
– Be carried out entirely before the end of 2024
– Be conducted by a member of the British Polling Council
See here for past polls: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
Will the U.K. Conservative Party lead in a national poll by the end of 2025?
61% chance
Conditional on losing the upcoming general election, how soon will the UK Conservative party be back in power?
Will the next leader of the Conservative Party become Prime Minister of the UK?
29% chance
Will the next elected leader of the Conservative Party be their leader by the time the next general election is held?
58% chance
When will the Conservative Party next lead a national poll? (UK general election polling)
If this person is the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next UK election, will the PM be Conservative?
Will a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)
17% chance
National parliament voting intention of the Conservatives in the UK as of 27 September 2024, according to Politico?
Will Keir Starmer be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at the end of 2024?
96% chance
Will a UK General Election be held during Q4 2024?
1% chance