Will the UK Conservative party win the next election?
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2025
5%
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Close date updated to 2022-11-21 11:59 pm

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Was this market intended to close before the election takes place?

predicts NO

What exactly counts as winning, given the possibility of a hung parliament? If (as I think is not that unlikely) the Tories are the largest party, but Labour are in government, did the Tories "win" the election? I was assuming "no", but on reflection that is not obvious.

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