Will a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)
9
33
190
2029
20%
chance

Inspired by Dominic Cummins' - The Startup Party.

Voters will increasingly demand change, the old parties can’t/won’t supply it and this will be even more intense by 2028. ...the next two years will see a hideous election showcasing the rot of the old parties, ) the old parties don’t want to supply it and couldn’t if they tried — the best possible environment for a startup to challenge incumbents. Somebody will seize this huge opportunity, for good or ill. - Dominic Cummins

Resolved by: December 31st, 2028, or whenever a new UK political party gain 50+ seats before
Sources: Electroal Commission, BBC and other equivalent sources.
"Doesn't count": Regime change, name change of existing party (doesn't apply if they never held a seat before) / rebranding, usage of royal perogative (thou impressive nonetheless).

2023.10.27 6:19 p.m. GMT - Adjusted so that "new" also refers to existing parties if they have never held a seat before.

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Just checking: new party means registered with electoral commission from market start? Or merely “never held a seat before”? So if e.g. Monster Raving Loony won 50 seats, would they be counted as new given they’ve never held a seat before?

@Noit Good question. I now feel like a strategy adjustment from an existing party that has never held more than 0 seat should also count. Because it would be such a monumental adjustment in strategy that it might as well be considered as a new party. I will adjust the description accordingly.

Also, a neat/possible way to deploy a new party would be to latch onto a smaller party's existing infrastructure instead of going through all of the stuff yourself potentially.

TLDR: Monster Raving Loony would count in this case.

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