Manifold search is not the best and I created a similar market because I didn't know this one exists. Have an arb: https://manifold.markets/MarkFrost/when-will-spacex-fly-starshipsuperh

Flight 6 before Flight 5, anyone?

@nikstar huh?

Nov 1st not down to 1% because people don't want to wait for the small profit?

Two flights in Nov seems unlikely if we assume SpaceX wants to learn all it can from flight 5 and apply it for flight 6, but maybe there is small possibility of testing different things and no mishap on flight 5? Unlikely, but perhaps not impossible?

Then we get increasing possibilities of flight 5 in Nov and flight 6 in Dec or Jan ...