>"I may resolve answers NO early if I'm exceedingly certain they aren't attainable"

Hmm. not sure yet?

3rd ship and booster won't be ready until late August.
Elon suggested about 10 ships and 5 boosters could be built in the remaining 30 weeks this year prior to IPO. That seems to suggest 1 ship off end of the line every 3 weeks and 1 booster off end of line every 6 weeks. There doesn't seem that much difference at present but maybe they are prioritising boosters and not ships at present and when they have reusable boosters available they will then accelerate and prioritise ship production.

If no reflights of ships, this would suggest insufficient ships for 20 launches this year but I guess there is a chance that ships could be caught and any refurbishment needed in order to re-fly might not take long.

If no booster recovery attempt on flight 14 then it would be late September or later when they do the 4th flight of the year and they might have 3 ships available for October launches, 4 for November launches and 5 for December launches. That could get you to 16. maybe if ship production is accelerated down to one off the end of the line in a little under every 3 weeks that might conceivably get another 2 or 3 more. However I don't know whether pad and flight turnaround time can realistically be reduced to less than a week so quickly, maybe that is considered possible. Development flights likely need new ships and more than a couple of weeks between them but these can be dispersed between operational starlink launches. Barging ships and boosters to Florida may well make this overly optimised schedule crazy.

This seems very much a green lights to Malibu, rose tinted schedule.

So, while I am very sure there won't be 20 launches in 2026, I am rather less sure if this might be enough for you to be "exceedingly certain" yet. Perhaps won't take much longer?

Perhaps add 4 or more?

@JoshuaWilkes @Nat
Also 6 or more?
There is more % gap from 27% to 66% than from 66% to 100%.

@JoshuaWilkes @ChristopherRandles Done! (Sorry for the delay, just needed to wait for NG-3 to launch to have enough mana lol)