Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the date range containing the actual liftoff date of SpaceX's Starship Flight 16 (Integrated Flight Test 16 / IFT-16), measured in US Central Time (CT).

• Liftoff Definition: Liftoff occurs when the vehicle intentionally ignites its engines, releases from the launch mount/pad, and begins vertical ascent. Aborted countdowns or static fire tests do not qualify.

• Source of Truth: Liftoff time and date will be verified using the official SpaceX website, SpaceX's official account on X (@SpaceX), or official launch webcast recordings.

• Answer Options (in Central Time):

  • Before Dec 11, 2026: Liftoff occurs on or before December 9, 2026, 11:59:59 PM CT.

  • Dec 11, 2026 - Dec 20, 2026: Liftoff occurs between December 10, 2026, 12:00:00 AM CT and December 20, 2026, 11:59:59 PM CT.

  • Dec 20, 2026 - Dec 31, 2026: Liftoff occurs between December 21, 2026, 12:00:00 AM CT and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM CT.

  • Jan 1, 2027 - Jan 15, 2027: Liftoff occurs between January 1, 2027, 12:00:00 AM CT and January 15, 2027, 11:59:59 PM CT.

  • Jan 15, 2027 - Jan 31 2027: Liftoff occurs between January 16, 2027, 12:00:00 AM CT and January 31, 2027, 11:59:59 PM CT.

  • Feb 1st and after: Liftoff occurs on or after February 1, 2027, 12:00:00 AM CT.

(Note: Date boundary overlaps are evaluated consecutively as non-overlapping daily brackets starting at 12:00 AM CT on the start day and ending at 11:59:59 PM CT on the end day).

Background

Starship Flight 15 lifted off on November 13, 2026 from Starbase, Texas. Turnaround intervals between integrated flight tests depend on launch pad readiness, vehicle testing (including static fires), regulatory modifications from the FAA, and anomaly investigations.

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