Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?

Basic

Ṁ7202

2025

0.1%

IFT 4

0.6%

IFT 5

1.5%

IFT 6

55%

IFT 7

39%

IFT 8

Other

An 'orbit' here is defined as a trajectory on which if no re-entry burn is fired Starship would remain in space for a period of over 24 hours (I don't want to get 'burned' by some sort of wacky sub-orbital flight that still lands at Starbase or in the Atlantic after one circumnavigation.

I will add an IFT 7 if Other is larger than any other option for a non-trivial period of time (and so on, by induction)

If SpaceX changes the naming convention, for example to OFT, this question will still apply.

If SpaceX announces before IFT 5 that IFT 6 will orbit, IFT 6 would be the one to resolve YES. If they did this I would still wait until before the (eg) #6 flight to check they didn't change it based on what happened in #5

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#SpaceX

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#Starship Launch Party

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bought Ṁ1 IFT 4 YES

Resolution question: If they announce this for 5 AND 6, will you resolve Yes for both, etc?

@CommanderZander I believe this is a linked market and therefore only one can resolve YES, hence I assume this is intended to resolve to the first such test flight for which this is the case

I assume it is unlikely, but if they announce before suborbital flight 4 that flight 5 will be orbital does 4 resolve yes and 5 resolve no?

@ChristopherRandles no 😬

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