Of launches carrying non-dummy payloads, whether SpaceX internal payloads such as Starlink satellites or customer payloads, will the first 500 launches have a 99% success rate or higher? That is, will at least 495 of them deliver their payload to the intended destination?
IFT-1 and IFT-2 do not qualify, so the count has not started yet. Future "test launches" will be counted or not based on whether they carried a payload intended for some useful application. (The Falcon Heavy test launch would not be included under this definition.) Cargo, crew, and propellant cargo for refueling missions will all be included.
Accidents resulting in complete loss of payload during pre-launch operations (eg AMOS-6) will count as failures for this count.
If the SpaceX Starship is retired before this question resolves, it will resolve based on whether the success rate at retirement is >= 99%. Close date will be extended if needed.
If IFT3 carries a cryogenic fuel transfer test (not intended to be deployed just demonstrate) which succeeds but the ship explodes before hard splashdown or explodes on splashdown will this count as success, failure or not an attempt that counts towards 500? Does it matter if it is carrying extra tanks to demonstrate this or just uses tanks that starship normally has?
@EvanDaniel Possible corner-case - if they're deploying multiple payloads and some succeed but some fail, does that count as failure all up?