Of launches carrying non-dummy payloads, whether SpaceX internal payloads such as Starlink satellites or customer payloads, will the first 500 launches have a 99% success rate or higher? That is, will at least 495 of them deliver their payload to the intended destination?

IFT-1 and IFT-2 do not qualify, so the count has not started yet. Future "test launches" will be counted or not based on whether they carried a payload intended for some useful application. (The Falcon Heavy test launch would not be included under this definition.) Cargo, crew, and propellant cargo for refueling missions will all be included.

Accidents resulting in complete loss of payload during pre-launch operations (eg AMOS-6) will count as failures for this count.

If the SpaceX Starship is retired before this question resolves, it will resolve based on whether the success rate at retirement is >= 99%. Close date will be extended if needed.