In 2019, the then Brexit Party initially threatened to run against the Conservative Party. Following policy changes that BXP found favourable, they subsequently stood down candidates in marginal Conservative seats to avoid splitting the vote.
For the next election, Reform leader Richard Tice has said that this will not be repeated. This question asks: really? You’re going to enable a Labour landslide?
This question resolves YES if, on election day, less than 70 of the top 100 safest Conservative seats (determined by highest CON vote share in 2019) have a Reform candidate on the ballot paper. If 70 or more of those seats have a Reform candidate on the ballot paper, this resolves NO.
This resolves based on what is on the ballot paper, if Reform candidates are stood down or ejected from the party and not replaced before the ballot sheet is locked in, then those seats have no Reform candidate. If they are stood down or ejected after the ballot is locked in, they will count as standing even if they are not part of the party.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ87 | |
| 2 | Ṁ50 | |
| 3 | Ṁ28 | |
| 4 | Ṁ23 | |
| 5 | Ṁ11 |
Resolves NO. As the candidates list is now finalised, I've run through the top 100 seats by 2019 CON vote share. Of those 100, 29 have changed names so tracking their lineage is a bit more awkward, but fortunately I didn't have to because 70 with names unchanged will have Reform candidates on the ballot. I only found one seat, Epping Forest, which had a 64.4% CON vote share in 2019 and will not see a Reform candidate in 2024.