Will Reform UK stand aside for the Conservative Party at the next general election?
10
32
260
Dec 31
7%
chance

In 2019, the then Brexit Party initially threatened to run against the Conservative Party. Following policy changes that BXP found favourable, they subsequently stood down candidates in marginal Conservative seats to avoid splitting the vote.

For the next election, Reform leader Richard Tice has said that this will not be repeated. This question asks: really? You’re going to enable a Labour landslide?

This question resolves YES if, on election day, less than 70 of the top 100 safest Conservative seats (determined by highest CON vote share in 2019) have a Reform candidate on the ballot paper. If 70 or more of those seats have a Reform candidate on the ballot paper, this resolves NO.

This resolves based on what is on the ballot paper, if Reform candidates are stood down or ejected from the party and not replaced before the ballot sheet is locked in, then those seats have no Reform candidate. If they are stood down or ejected after the ballot is locked in, they will count as standing even if they are not part of the party.

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