If Boris Johnson is the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next UK general election, will the Conservative Party win? | Manifold

If Boris Johnson is the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next UK general election, will the Conservative Party win?

Politics•UK politics

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2025

33%

chance

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This resolves N/A if Boris Johnson is not the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Conservative majority or minority government or a coalition government where Conservatives make up a plurality of the seats, and NO otherwise. Close date updated to 2025-01-24 12:00 am

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predicts YES

Shouldn't this resolve to N/A? Ol Boris did not make it as far as expected.

@AndrewHartman Not impossible for him to come back, incredibly, after Truss had a rough start.

predicts NO

@MartinRandall I made a market for this a little while ago:

bought Ṁ2 of YES

Ah, the perils of CFMM(?) with low liquidity.

bought Ṁ8 of YES

Three percent?

bought Ṁ5 of NO

Inside view: Current polling has Labour as largest party. Outside view: Conservatives will have been in power for 14 years by the next election.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Allowing for them to be the plurality of a coalition makes this rather probable, I think.

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