Will the Conservatives / Tories win more than 200 seats at the next UK general election?
Dec 31


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cumulative market for the other side

predicts YES

Pushed resolution to the end of the year, was set to Feb for some reason. It's my intention to close before the exit poll comes out, though, so I'll update again when the date is known.

predicts YES

I've now created a market for 160 seats since my own implicit expectations for these markets were a little off 😅

This is also overpriced

@Tagger just put a limit in at 20% if you want it...

predicts NO

@Tomoffer Am I going to get laughed at for saying I don't really understand the limits.

@Tagger nope - it means if you buy NO down to 20%, you'll hit a wall where I start buying the corresponding YES shares (up to 100M). That means you get better rates at that point than you would have got otherwise. I'm saying "I think it's more than 20% likely, so on that basis I'm happy to buy from you at that price". You might not want to go down to 20% though, up to you.

predicts NO

@Tomoffer Oh, I see! Thanks for the explanation.

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