Will Reform UK poll at 20% or above before the next general election?
23
69
1k
Nov 30
24%
chance

Reform UK (the latest incarnation of the Brexit Party) have been polling at around 10% to 15% for the past few weeks and hit a record high of 15% with Yougov today:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Will they poll at 20% or above before the general election?

Market notes:

  • The only polls which count are those carried out by members of the British Polling Council (all the pollsters you see on the Wiki page are members) and must be of the whole of the UK or GB. No polls of swing voters, marginal constituencies, etc. would count.

  • The poll must be of general election voting intention. So no nationwide polling for local elections or hypothetical things like “how would you vote if Farage was leader of the Conservatives” would count

  • If a poll is released with a headline figure of Reform on 20%, this market will resolve to YES even if digging into the data shows that it would have been 19.x% before rounding

  • Where possible I will use the table at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election as the source of truth for this market. If the criteria for inclusion or reporting on that page changes to the point where that isn’t possible, I will base this on the primary polling data. If there are any shenanigans or it looks like anyone has edited the Wiki page to manipulate this market, I will resolve based on the spirit of the market rather than this source.

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