Following three weeks of speculation, Lee Anderson has today defected to Reform UK, giving them their first MP - /SimonGrayson/will-lee-anderson-join-reform-uk

At their joint press conference this morning, Richard Tice (Reform's party leader) has said that he expects more Tory MPs to defect before the next election.

Will MPs from the Conservative Party or any other MPs defect to Reform before Parliament is dissolved for a general election?

• If any MP defects so that they are sitting as a Reform UK MP, this market will resolve to YES.

• If any MP resigns their seat or is removed in some other way and registers as the Reform UK candidate for a by-election, this market will resolve to YES

• If a sitting MP announces that they will be standing in the next General Election as a Reform UK candidate, this market resolves to YES

• If Parliament is dissolved before any of the above happen, the market will resolve to NO