Who will be the next Conservative Party Leader?
95
20k
2025
19%
Penny Mordaunt
18%
Priti Patel
16%
Other
15%
Kemi Badenoch
10%
Jeremy Hunt
7%
Suella Braverman
6%
James Cleverly
2%
David Cameron
1.4%
Claire Coutinho
1%
Tom Tugendhat

Resolves to the next full (not interim) leader of the UK's Conservative and Union Party, taking office after Rishi Sunak.

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sold Ṁ489 Kemi Badenoch NO

Has to be a sitting MP

Hunt and Mordaunt will be unseated

I’m actually getting to the point where I’m wondering if they’ll drop that rule. It’s a Conservative rule, not the law. If we’re talking about under 100 seats left, are the remainder going to unite around some chump from an ultra safe seat?

I think it'd be too embarrassing to change it. The Lib Dems are a considerably smaller party and they have the same rule. I'm not sure if Labour have the rule, formally speaking, but according to Wikipedia the last time they had a leader who was not an MP was in 1932.

The only parties whose leaders are not represented in the Commons are fringe parties. So changing the rule would have the symbolic implication that the Conservatives are no longer a major party.

I've added "is an MP" to this market. Very low liquidity, but better than nothing

https://manifold.markets/lisamarsh/what-will-be-true-of-the-next-perma?r=Rmlvbg

Could you add David Cameron?

@lisamarsh The leader has to be a sitting MP which would make David Cameron ineligble.

@MaePole If they lose badly enough, maybe they’ll change the rules! Paddypower have him as 6th most likely.

@lisamarsh Must have missed this notification, added now!

Can you add Andy Street?

@lisamarsh Ooo, interesting! Almost, just about, an acceptable Tory

bought Ṁ1 Grant Schapps YES

Please not Gove or Mogg, anyone but them 🙏 (it's prob gonna be one of them because fuck us)

What’s with the sudden rush on Mordaunt?

TL;DR news running with Mordaunt / Braverman / Badenoch as the big three to watch. Braverman doesn’t seem to have much traction here though!

Can you add Claire Coutinho please?

@JoshuaWilkes She’s in now! Is she getting mentions somewhere?

@Noit a few murmurs on Political Currency

Grant Schapps is apparently lobbying the hardest of anyone to be the next leader, so I’ve stuck him in.

Gove in the news a lot, recently...

First Conservative Home poll in ages puts Badenoch in a very strong position.

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