Resolves to the next full (not interim) leader of the UK's Conservative and Union Party, taking office after Rishi Sunak.
Related questions
Badenoch at 37% and not even announced standing? And neck-and-neck with other contenders + losing to Cleverly in poll of Conservative voters? https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/voters-split-future-leader-conservative-party-and-reasons-election-defeat
The result isn't decided by conservative voters or the general public, it's the tiny caucus of conservative members. And they flipping love Badenoch. https://conservativehome.com/2024/07/14/our-survey-a-quarter-of-members-back-badenoch-for-leader-but-the-race-is-wide-open/
I think assuming she won't be in the final two at the moment feels like a stretch, so high thirties feels sensible to me.
Thanks for the response. I don't think it translates to 37% given we don't know how those supporting other candidates will resolve in the head-to-head run-off, and we don't know who will end up in that run-off. I think MPs will be very heavily influenced by general voter polling, conservative and not, in their selections, given the situation. Above-linked poll shows Jenrick, Tugendhat relatively popular (or at least relatively un-unpopular) amongst voters for other parties, who Conservatives need to court. I also suspect that Badenoch essentially represents failed culture war focus.
It would have been good to see the non-exclusive 'do you think x would be a good leader' or 'would you vote for x in a leadership contest?' style question put to conservative members.
The Express has a spreadsheet of which Conservative MPs are backing who. Right now it's looking pretty empty.
Edit: I've sucked out the Google Doc from the article so it's easier to see here.
Leadership contest timetable is now confirmed:
Nominations open on Wednesday 24th July.
Nominations close on Monday 29th July.
MPs whittle down the list to two candidates.
Membership is polled, polling closes 31st October.
Winner is announced 2nd November.
Technically speaking the last three steps might be skipped if there's only a single contender at any point, but that seems unlikely.
On the bright side we can definitely start chipping names off this list permanently starting on Tuesday!
The Guardian Liveblog is floating Mel Stride today so I've added him in. Apparently he's more centrist so he'll be competition for Tugendhat.
Politics at Jack and Sam’s reporting that the timetable presented to the 1922 committee will have the leader in place for the October budget. Splitting the difference between those who want a short contest and those who want to go long. It’s not guaranteed to be approved though, so we'll have to see how that pans out.
Going short was supposed to benefit the right-wing contestants and going long the centrists, so I guess this is a slight boon to the centrists?
I've put a few big limit orders where I think things broadly are if anyone wants to eat them.
This market is a bit too twitchy for my liking so I've added 1000 liquidity.
An interesting wrinkle in the Badenoch supremacy: her constituency is particularly badly affected by the postal votes delays, and in the event of a close result, Labour could demand a rerun of the whole election. Which would bar her from standing in a leadership contest as she wouldn't be an MP.
@traders With news of the Tory campaign director standing aside due to his wife gambling on the date of the election (what a degenerate), I'm just going to stake out a couple of very unlikely edge case results here just in case.
1) If there is only one Tory MP left after the election then that person will be assumed the leader of the party and I will resolve to their name (or Other if they're not listed).
2) If there are no Tory MPs left after the election then I will wait one month to see whether there's enough of a party membership left to change the rules and begin a leadership election process, and if there is not then this will resolve to Other.
I've chosen 1) because the current Tory rules say the leader must be an MP, so if there is only one MP then that person must be the de facto Tory leader.
I've chosen 2) because if the party ceases to be a parliamentary one then there's no guarantee of how long it will take for a new leader to be selected, whether there even will be a new leader elected, or whether the party membership will splinter and create potentially multiple successor groups. So I'd rather get people's mana unlocked.
Like I said I don't think either are likely, but if you disagree with either of these edge-case approaches then please let me know!
ignore