🏅 Top traders

Congratulations to @Ridders who held tough for the big win

@JoshuaWilkes Thanks. It’s been said, historically the ‘front runners’ don’t win, if true then this has bucked a trend.

Heeeeere’s Kemi

It’s official, Kemi Badenoch has won the membership vote and become the new leader of the Conservative Party.

It’s no secret that the party is still racked with internal division, so here’s some relevant markets on the party’s future.

First: who will be the next leader after Badenoch?

https://manifold.markets/joeym4/will-the-next-elected-leader-of-the

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/who-will-lead-the-conservative-part

Bruh I'm boutta get a phat payout

Oops, just realised I had this set to close November 2025 and not this year. Corrected to reflect the fact we're into the final week now.

Also from today's Politico playbook:
"It seems even Tory activists are struggling to engage, with the Sun’s Harry Cole hearing that as of Friday less than half of Tory members had voted, with insiders suspecting turnout will be way down on 2022 (those giddy days when Conservative activists got to select the actual prime minister)."

Got me selling a little Badenoch YES, with turnout that low the membership polling might not be particularly relevant.

If you're looking for related markets that haven't just shot to 99% or 1% as we pull into this final stage of the contest:

• How many Conservative Leadership TV debates will take place during this leadership contest?

• Will any Conservative MPs defect to Reform in the day following the announcement of the new Conservative leader?

• What will be true of the next permanent leader of the UK Conservative Party?

• Will any former Conservative leader endorse any Conservative leadership candidate?

Shocker! Cleverly from top to bottom and he is out, leaving Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick the final two, who will (barring any last minute drop-out) be voted on by the membership over the coming weeks.

Jenrick it is then

@timothy Have you updated your opinion on how racist the Tory party is?

Tugendghat is OUT. Full results of today's vote:

• Badenoch: 30

• Cleverly: 39

• Jenrick: 31

• Tugendhat: 20

As a reminder, 41+ is the safe spot to guarantee yourself in the two places that go to the member's vote.

What a huge result for Cleverly! I’m happy with the large position I’ve built up on him, including plenty of bets when he was at 4% to 10%…

Ive got markets here on the final MPs’ ballot due to take place tomorrow:

/SimonGrayson/conservative-party-leadership-conte-tlqp927ohc

/SimonGrayson/conservative-party-leadership-conte-5wdzr7z2qc

Is there some James Cleverly news I've been missing? A few days ago he was a rounding error away from zero and now he's in second place? What happened?

@Fion He had a good conference speech.

(I don't think he and Tom had any business being so low until after the speeches)

@JoshuaWilkes Wowzers, did Cleverly go hard on the immigration angle? - never watched that conference.

The four candidates are making their pitch at the Tory Party Conference and the next step is expected to be a third MPs' ballot next Wednesday.

Who will come top? Who will be eliminated?

/SimonGrayson/conservative-party-leadership-conte-ai2zzf0hfy

/SimonGrayson/conservative-party-leadership-conte-2dyb72ftv9

Hmm, Jenrick limit orders seem to be bugging again :(

Mel Stride is OUT. Unless there are any surprise drop-outs, the field will now remain unchanged until after party conference.

The next vote is tomorrow, probably approximately the same time as the last one. After that we're in for approximately a month with the remaining four candidates, assuming none drop out over that period.

Starmer didn't win because he was popular - he got less votes than Corbyn. Starmer won because Farage absorbed the Conservative vote. So the Conservatives - if they want to win the next election - have to reabsorb that vote (Jenrick is best for this) OR coalition with Farage (in which case the leader doesn't matter as much).

@traders the first elimination will be on Wednesday if you want to get your final bets in! I haven't seen when the second elimination will be other than it'll be a week on Wednesday at the latest.

Most candidates will be formally launching their campaigns this week so plenty to keep an eye on.

Con Home Shad Cab rankings as ranked by party membership. Badenoch's still top. James Cleverly doing surprisingly well.

i News survey of the general population. Nothing there that's going to light a fire under the membership to pick any candidate.

Stridin’ with Mel

Nominations are closed, and according to the Guardian the candidates have all been accepted, so presumably no embarrassing case of someone having their name out but not having the 10 backers.

Nominations close at 2:30 today.

There are six declared candidates still in the race. Will they all manage 10 nominations today? Will any of them withdraw for other reasons? Has a dark horse been quietly gathering nominations without us knowing?

• Kemi Badenoch

• James Cleverly

• Robert Jenrick

• Priti Patel

• Mel Stride

• Tom Tugendhat

Predict how many candidates there will be here - /SimonGrayson/conservative-party-leadership-conte-gtn7nyie4o

And with Braverman out, predict whether she's about to jump the fence to Reform UK here - /SimonGrayson/will-suella-braverman-defect-to-ref