@traders With news of the Tory campaign director standing aside due to his wife gambling on the date of the election (what a degenerate), I'm just going to stake out a couple of very unlikely edge case results here just in case.

1) If there is only one Tory MP left after the election then that person will be assumed the leader of the party and I will resolve to their name (or Other if they're not listed).

2) If there are no Tory MPs left after the election then I will wait one month to see whether there's enough of a party membership left to change the rules and begin a leadership election process, and if there is not then this will resolve to Other.

I've chosen 1) because the current Tory rules say the leader must be an MP, so if there is only one MP then that person must be the de facto Tory leader.

I've chosen 2) because if the party ceases to be a parliamentary one then there's no guarantee of how long it will take for a new leader to be selected, whether there even will be a new leader elected, or whether the party membership will splinter and create potentially multiple successor groups. So I'd rather get people's mana unlocked.

Like I said I don't think either are likely, but if you disagree with either of these edge-case approaches then please let me know!

ignore

I love seeing poll after poll hitting this market and rebalancing all the candidates based on who might keep their seats.

Ahahaha! Love that you’ve added Farage

I can't believe he's attracted so much trading attention! He was already technically covered by Other, but I put him on and he spiked as high as 17%. Personally I'd put him at 2 or 3 % if I had the mana to spare.

Don't drink and manifold

Added a couple more names based on this article, which is a real aid to figuring out the ins and outs of this market. And also Farage, in case of him being elected and then being accepted into the Conservatives to stand in their leadership contest.

Has to be a sitting MP

Hunt and Mordaunt will be unseated

https://manifold.markets/lisamarsh/will-jeremy-hunt-lose-his-seat-at-t?r=Rmlvbg

https://manifold.markets/NoitUK/uk-general-election-which-party-wil-43fe6bd4d13c?r=Rmlvbg

https://manifold.markets/NoitUK/uk-general-election-which-party-wil-b9d2789d2fbd?r=Rmlvbg

In case they're of interest

I’m actually getting to the point where I’m wondering if they’ll drop that rule. It’s a Conservative rule, not the law. If we’re talking about under 100 seats left, are the remainder going to unite around some chump from an ultra safe seat?

I think it'd be too embarrassing to change it. The Lib Dems are a considerably smaller party and they have the same rule. I'm not sure if Labour have the rule, formally speaking, but according to Wikipedia the last time they had a leader who was not an MP was in 1932.

The only parties whose leaders are not represented in the Commons are fringe parties. So changing the rule would have the symbolic implication that the Conservatives are no longer a major party.

I've added "is an MP" to this market. Very low liquidity, but better than nothing

https://manifold.markets/lisamarsh/what-will-be-true-of-the-next-perma?r=Rmlvbg

Could you add David Cameron?

@lisamarsh The leader has to be a sitting MP which would make David Cameron ineligble.

@MaePole If they lose badly enough, maybe they’ll change the rules! Paddypower have him as 6th most likely.

@lisamarsh Must have missed this notification, added now!

Can you add Andy Street?

@lisamarsh Ooo, interesting! Almost, just about, an acceptable Tory

Please not Gove or Mogg, anyone but them 🙏 (it's prob gonna be one of them because fuck us)

What’s with the sudden rush on Mordaunt?

TL;DR news running with Mordaunt / Braverman / Badenoch as the big three to watch. Braverman doesn’t seem to have much traction here though!

Can you add Claire Coutinho please?

@JoshuaWilkes She’s in now! Is she getting mentions somewhere?

@Noit a few murmurs on Political Currency

Grant Schapps is apparently lobbying the hardest of anyone to be the next leader, so I’ve stuck him in.