Will the Labour Party win a landslide victory in the next UK general election?
103
633
1.1k
2025
67%
chance

Definition

The longstanding definition of a landslide victory in the UK is securing a majority of at least than 100 seats in Parliament. While newspapers etc have sometimes used the term more loosely, for the purposes of this question the 100 seat majority will remain the defining point.

Resolution

The date of the election is not currently known. The latest date allowed by law is 28th January 2025, but as this would result in the current government sitting for more than 5 years (therefore breaking longstanding conventions) and the election period running over the Christmas holidays, it is widely expected to take place no later than November 2024.

Once the actual election date is known, the question will be set to close at the time the polls close on election day. Resolution will follow once enough results have been released to be sure whether the criteria were reached. This is most likely to be the following day.

My actions

I will kick off betting on this question with a small bet of my own and may change / increase this bet going forwards, but will keep my bets small relative to the size of the market.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/07/labour-landslide-election-victory-poll-keir-starmer-rishi-sunak-conservatives-constituency-boundaries

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There are 650 seats in the House of Commons; does a 100-seat majority mean that Labour have to win at least 375 seats for this to resolve YES? Or are you defining this some other way?

sold Ṁ322 of YES

@lisamarsh Valid question, user account is deleted so I’m selling up to avoid the psychodrama of trying to figure out exact criteria after the fact.

predicts NO

@Noit We are allowed to "fix" criteria now so if you think you know what everyone was actually betting on, let me know.

predicts NO

This is surely overpriced? They'd have to have seats to win in Scotland for this to be viable. I just don't see the very many safe Tory seats either not going Tory or not going Lib Dem at the very least.

predicts YES

@wilkess State of the Nation is currently forecasting 400 Labour seats, and the most recent Electoral Calculus is forecasting 414. I suspect the margins will thin a bit before election time but we absolutely are in landslide territory if you’re defining that as 100+ seats.

The SNP are polling quite poorly since Sturgeon stood down amidst some ongoing scandal, and Labour definitely have a lot of opportunities there. There’s a by-election in an SNP seat that Labour are expected to win next month which should give a bit more credence to that.

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