Will a UK General Election be held with a polling date between 1st April and 30th June 2024?
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@NoitUK I am of the view that doing these sorts of pre-resolutions are a mistake, even if they're done in good faith.
@RemNi Why is it a problem? If the extremely unlikely happens, it can be re-resolved and it is sufficiently unlikely that it would not be much work to re-resolve where necessary.
@RemNi The successful traders getting their mana back earlier so they can bet again should strengthen the ability of the markets to find the right value. So I would suggest earlier resolution strengthens the epistemics.
I guess I could see a case for waiting until parliament is dissolved. After that how would the law be changed? Before that, they could change laws to allow a change but would look pretty ridiculous doing so, so I don't think it is a realistic possibility. For all reasonable purposes it already is going to be true.
@ChristopherRandles the traders who bought No at 50% can sell at 1% and make essentially as much as they would if the market resolved. Manifold is not suffering from a mana liquidity problem.
There's thousands of different scenarios you can imagine where a UK election is held in Q2 2024, they're just not likely. Still doesn't mean it's impossible.
@RemNi Not sure what my overall thoughts are here, but note that selling NO at 1% incurs almost a 7% trading fee these days, which is a serious cut of the profits. (though I'm not sure why this screenshot shows both that there's a significant % fee and that the fee is 0.0)
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said his “working assumption” is that a general election will take place in the second half of the year.
Elections ahead for Hertfordshire voters as parties vye for power across the county
BBC: Rishi Sunak suggests general election in second half of year
Multiple small signals point to May; first the budget, and now various delays on promised reports:
Emily Thornberry, the shadow attorney general, said: “One of the ways we know the government is gearing up for an election in May is that they have started running down the clock on all kinds of publications in the hope of delaying disclosure until the purdah period kicks in."