Basic
153
152k
resolved May 31
100%99.0%
July 2024
·
1y
0.1%
May 2024
·
1y
0.5%
October 2024
·
1y
0.0%
September 2024
·
1y
0.2%
November 2024
·
1y
0.0%
April 2024
·
1y
0.0%
June 2024
·
1y
0.0%
December 2024
·
1y
0.0%
August 2024
·
1y
0.0%
Before 2024
·
1y
0.0%
March 2024
·
1y
0.0%
Not before 2025
·
1y
0.0%
February 2024
·
1y
0.0%
January 2024
·
1y

A General Election is widely expected to take place in the UK in 2024.

While it is possible that we could face early elections in 2023 or that the government could hold out for a Christmas campaign and a January 2025 election (and there are options for this in the market), this is seen as pretty unlikely.

Which month will it be?

Resolution criteria:

  • This market applies to the main voting day regardless of early voting or anything like that

  • This market will resolve to the next General Election, so there won't be a split resolution if there are two GEs in the year (like there were in 1974)

  • The market will resolve once parliament is dissolved. This is the point at which the general election date is set in stone. In the very unlikely event that the election is delayed (eg. because the King dies or there is some sort of terrorist attack), the market will not be re-resolved.

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The next big one for me is the next leader of the Conservative Party; I think I have positions on almost everyone

It is, occasionally, fun to do a postmortem of sorts when you have success in a market. In this case, I was not only able to make a large profit, I was able to almost guarantee myself a profit no matter what outcome, simply by resolutely buying options when they were unfashionable. There were various cycles where a month went up and down and generally I think bettors were too keen to buy up the favourite.

@SimonGrayson thank you this was really fun!

It's good to see that these rumours have left the market unmoved at 99.4%

@traders

Rishi Sunak has announced that the election will take place on 4th July.

A reminder that this market resolves once Parliament is dissolved. In the incredibly unlikely event that something delays or prevents that, the date of the election could change.

If Parliament is dissolved, this market resolves and any further changes of date will not apply to this market.

A lot of people are losing a lot of mana today

Multiple news agencies are reporting July 4th

sold Ṁ2 August 2024 YES

Maitlis confirms 4th July

https://x.com/maitlis/status/1793293948410007731

O say can you see?

opened a Ṁ500 July 2024 YES at 80% order

I'm hearing from two decent sources that there will be an announcement to the press from the PM at 5pm today in Downing Street.

https://x.com/petercardwell/status/1793277864478904400

I predict... an election! Trick is to buy low and sell high :P

bought Ṁ150 October 2024 YES

luv october

ate november

simple as

Some are making the argument that this is just an incoming reshuffle, in which case a hedge would be to bet on Will any UK cabinet member leave cabinet this month?

TBH I think that even if it is "just" a reshuffle, it's a reshuffle in advance of calling an election. I don't buy a reshuffle now for an election six months away.

@Noit That makes sense.

I’m usually really dubious about rumours like this, but I’m surprised that no one in government has come out to squash the rumours yet!

@traders

Absolutely huge moves on this market today with July going from 4% to 63% and then settling at around 40%.

This is off the back of rumours that Rishi Sunak is planning to call a general election today (meaning that 4th July would be the most likely date).

Is there any truth to these rumours? /SimonGrayson/will-rishi-sunak-announce-general-e

Ministers have been told to attend cabinet at 4pm on pain of death. They have not been told what they will be discussing

https://x.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1793234507291574525

i think an election is quite likely now.

The fact they haven’t killed off the rumours yet says a lot.

bought Ṁ10 July 2024 YES

bought Ṁ20 July 2024 YES

Sunak's refusing to rule out a July election...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/28/rishi-sunak-refuses-to-rule-out-july-election-amid-record-low-poll-rating

Could we see some exciting market movement in the next few days?

bought Ṁ5 February 2024 YES

Haven’t you learnt not to bet anything down to zero? Are you seriously saying that no piece of evidence could possibly convince you that the election has already happened, and you were too busy to notice?

bought Ṁ1,000 March 2024 NO

@BonjTwo It's never exactly zero on manifold - we only get one decimal place. So yeah, the odds of the election already having happened are much less than 0.1%

@Fion Ah, I understand.

I’m so glad this market isn’t drastically wobbling on all this summer election talk, I really don’t want the favourite to collapse on me a second time.

@Noit I've put all my profit from the first collapse into betting on a second...

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