Will Reform UK be ahead of the Conservative Party in an opinion poll before the next general election?
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46
Ṁ8306
resolved Jun 13
Resolved
YES

Reform UK (the latest incarnation of the Brexit Party) have been polling at around 5% to 10% for the past few months and hit a new high of 11%a few times in December:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Will they beat the Conservative Party in a national poll between now and the general election?

Market notes:

  • The only polls which count are those carried out by members of the British Polling Council (all the pollsters you see on the Wiki page are members) and must be of the whole of the UK or GB. No polls of swing voters, marginal constituencies, etc. would count.

  • The poll must be of general election voting intention. So no nationwide polling for local elections or hypothetical things like “how would you vote if Farage was leader of the Conservatives” would count

  • If a poll is released which shows the two parties tied on the same percentage (eg. Labour 42%, Conservative 18%, Reform UK 18%), that won’t count even if looking into the data shows that Reform would have been ahead before rounding

  • Where possible I will use the table at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election as the source of truth for this market. If the criteria for inclusion or reporting on that page changes to the point where that isn’t possible, I will base this on the primary polling data. If there are any shenanigans or it looks like anyone has edited the Wiki page to manipulate this market, I will resolve based on the spirit of the market rather than this source.

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@traders This was all the way down at 10% in January, but the return of Nigel Farage and the absolute implosion of the Conservative Party means that this actually happened and the market resolves to YES!

What will happen next? Will Reform keep rising and hit 20%? Will the Tories be so badly beaten that they aren't even the opposition after the next election?

/SimonGrayson/will-reform-uk-poll-at-20-or-above

/SimonGrayson/will-reform-uk-get-over-4000000-vot

/SimonGrayson/will-the-conservative-party-win-few

/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-how-many-s-qzm55nj4xt

/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-party-wil-35d0bc6a20f9

Time to get some more eyes on

bought Ṁ1,544 YES

@SimonGrayson resolves yes

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 90% order

It’s here, the poll! The poll!

the madlads have done it

bought Ṁ150 YES

YouGov's latest poll has the Tories two points ahead of Reform UK.

But if they hadn't updated their methodology, it would have shown the two parties level!

predicted YES

Reform UK at 12% and the Tories at 20% in the latest YouGov poll:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2024

This poll is probably an outlier, but that's the closest they've ever been!