Will Reform UK be ahead of the Conservative Party in an opinion poll before the next general election?
Dec 31

Reform UK (the latest incarnation of the Brexit Party) have been polling at around 5% to 10% for the past few months and hit a new high of 11%a few times in December:


Will they beat the Conservative Party in a national poll between now and the general election?

Market notes:

  • The only polls which count are those carried out by members of the British Polling Council (all the pollsters you see on the Wiki page are members) and must be of the whole of the UK or GB. No polls of swing voters, marginal constituencies, etc. would count.

  • The poll must be of general election voting intention. So no nationwide polling for local elections or hypothetical things like “how would you vote if Farage was leader of the Conservatives” would count

  • If a poll is released which shows the two parties tied on the same percentage (eg. Labour 42%, Conservative 18%, Reform UK 18%), that won’t count even if looking into the data shows that Reform would have been ahead before rounding

  • Where possible I will use the table at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election as the source of truth for this market. If the criteria for inclusion or reporting on that page changes to the point where that isn’t possible, I will base this on the primary polling data. If there are any shenanigans or it looks like anyone has edited the Wiki page to manipulate this market, I will resolve based on the spirit of the market rather than this source.

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predicts YES

Reform UK at 12% and the Tories at 20% in the latest YouGov poll:


This poll is probably an outlier, but that's the closest they've ever been!

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