Hmm, Jenrick limit orders seem to be bugging again :(

Mel Stride is OUT. Unless there are any surprise drop-outs, the field will now remain unchanged until after party conference.

The next vote is tomorrow, probably approximately the same time as the last one. After that we're in for approximately a month with the remaining four candidates, assuming none drop out over that period.

Starmer didn't win because he was popular - he got less votes than Corbyn. Starmer won because Farage absorbed the Conservative vote. So the Conservatives - if they want to win the next election - have to reabsorb that vote (Jenrick is best for this) OR coalition with Farage (in which case the leader doesn't matter as much).

@traders the first elimination will be on Wednesday if you want to get your final bets in! I haven't seen when the second elimination will be other than it'll be a week on Wednesday at the latest.

Most candidates will be formally launching their campaigns this week so plenty to keep an eye on.

Con Home Shad Cab rankings as ranked by party membership. Badenoch's still top. James Cleverly doing surprisingly well.

i News survey of the general population. Nothing there that's going to light a fire under the membership to pick any candidate.

Stridin’ with Mel

Nominations are closed, and according to the Guardian the candidates have all been accepted, so presumably no embarrassing case of someone having their name out but not having the 10 backers.

Nominations close at 2:30 today.

There are six declared candidates still in the race. Will they all manage 10 nominations today? Will any of them withdraw for other reasons? Has a dark horse been quietly gathering nominations without us knowing?

• Kemi Badenoch

• James Cleverly

• Robert Jenrick

• Priti Patel

• Mel Stride

• Tom Tugendhat

Predict how many candidates there will be here - /SimonGrayson/conservative-party-leadership-conte-gtn7nyie4o

And with Braverman out, predict whether she's about to jump the fence to Reform UK here - /SimonGrayson/will-suella-braverman-defect-to-ref

Kemi Badenoch is IN.

Suella Braverman is NOT IN.

Priti Patel is IN.

Mel Stride is IN.

Badenoch at 37% and not even announced standing? And neck-and-neck with other contenders + losing to Cleverly in poll of Conservative voters? https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/voters-split-future-leader-conservative-party-and-reasons-election-defeat

The result isn't decided by conservative voters or the general public, it's the tiny caucus of conservative members. And they flipping love Badenoch. https://conservativehome.com/2024/07/14/our-survey-a-quarter-of-members-back-badenoch-for-leader-but-the-race-is-wide-open/

I think assuming she won't be in the final two at the moment feels like a stretch, so high thirties feels sensible to me.

Thanks for the response. I don't think it translates to 37% given we don't know how those supporting other candidates will resolve in the head-to-head run-off, and we don't know who will end up in that run-off. I think MPs will be very heavily influenced by general voter polling, conservative and not, in their selections, given the situation. Above-linked poll shows Jenrick, Tugendhat relatively popular (or at least relatively un-unpopular) amongst voters for other parties, who Conservatives need to court. I also suspect that Badenoch essentially represents failed culture war focus.

It would have been good to see the non-exclusive 'do you think x would be a good leader' or 'would you vote for x in a leadership contest?' style question put to conservative members.

Jenrick is IN, we now have three candidates confirmed:

• James Cleverley

• Tom Tugendhat

• Robert Jenrick

The Express has a spreadsheet of which Conservative MPs are backing who. Right now it's looking pretty empty.

Edit: I've sucked out the Google Doc from the article so it's easier to see here.

Leadership contest timetable is now confirmed:

1. Nominations open on Wednesday 24th July.

2. Nominations close on Monday 29th July.

3. MPs whittle down the list to two candidates.

4. Membership is polled, polling closes 31st October.

5. Winner is announced 2nd November.

Technically speaking the last three steps might be skipped if there's only a single contender at any point, but that seems unlikely.

On the bright side we can definitely start chipping names off this list permanently starting on Tuesday!

The Guardian Liveblog is floating Mel Stride today so I've added him in. Apparently he's more centrist so he'll be competition for Tugendhat.

This is the market that keeps on giving! I’ll almost be sad once it resolves 😂

Contest process was supposed to be announced this week, but it's been pushed to next week.

I've just created a market on who the final two presented to the membership will be, see what you think!

Politics at Jack and Sam’s reporting that the timetable presented to the 1922 committee will have the leader in place for the October budget. Splitting the difference between those who want a short contest and those who want to go long. It’s not guaranteed to be approved though, so we'll have to see how that pans out.

Going short was supposed to benefit the right-wing contestants and going long the centrists, so I guess this is a slight boon to the centrists?

I've put a few big limit orders where I think things broadly are if anyone wants to eat them.