The race to replace Rishi Sunak as the leader of the Conservative Party has begun!
The proposed schedule is as follows:
Candidates must gather 10 nominations (including themself) by Monday 29th July to stand
Nominations close on Monday 29th and the 1922 Committee will confirm how many valid candidates have been nominated
MPs will vote in multiple rounds. In each round, the candidate with the least votes is eliminated (candidates who were close to losing quite often drop out at this point as well) and the others go through to the next round of voting
If there are more than four nominees, MPs will vote on candidates to whittle them down to the final four in time for Conservative Party conference
The final four candidates will give their pitch at the conference (29th Sep to 2nd Oct)
MPs will continue voting to get down to the final two candidates
The Conservative Party membership will vote on the final two candidates
The new leader will be announced on 2nd November
Given the very low threshold for nominations (something like 20 would be more normal, the last time the number was set at 100 so that the party could replace Liz Truss quickly rather than dragging things out) there is speculation that there will a very wide field of candidates.
How many candidates will receive valid nominations?
Notes:
The 1922 committee will be considered to be the source of truth if there is any controversy or disagreement
A candidate who announces their candidacy but who fails to get 10 nominations will not count
A candidate who says that they’ve got 10 nominations but who drops out before the deadline will not count
As confirmed by the Guardian and the Spectator, there are six candidates:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/whos-backing-whom-tory-leadership-race-begins/
This market resolves to 6.
Which of the six will get the most votes in the first round of voting? Which one will get eliminated first?
/SimonGrayson/conservative-party-leadership-conte-rnej14zwod
/SimonGrayson/conservative-party-leadership-conte-ode3dvxivd
Just a reminder that candidates need to get 10 nominations (including themself) and to formally enter their papers by 2:30 this afternoon to count towards this market. Braverman has already claimed that she had 10 nominations, but she has withdrawn from the contest so she does not count!
There are six declared candidates still in the race. Will they all manage 10 nominations today? Will any of them withdraw for other reasons? Has a dark horse been quietly gathering nominations without us knowing?
Kemi Badenoch
James Cleverly
Robert Jenrick
Priti Patel
Mel Stride
Tom Tugendhat
Related markets:
/NoitUK/who-will-be-the-next-conservative-p
/SimonGrayson/conservative-party-leadership-conte-t74g95grt5