Will the next leader of the Conservative Party become Prime Minister of the UK?
11
48
1k
2030
29%
chance

I will change the title once the next leader after Sunak is chosen.

If they are chosen whilst the Conservative Party is in power it immediately resolves to YES.

If the Conservatives are not in power, it will resolve to YES if said leader becomes Prime Minister, and resolve to NO if they cease to be leader without doing so (Question ignores the possibility of becoming leader again)

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ1 YES

Interesting question! On the one hand, the Conservatives are almost always in power and most of their leaders get to be PM. On the other hand, it does look like they might be heading for a period of stumbling in the wilderness after the next election so they might go through a couple of leaders.

@Fion i agree, they are likely to be in opposition for at least 2 parliaments.

More related questions