Will the next leader of the Conservative Party become Prime Minister of the UK?
11
42
Ṁ253Ṁ250
2030
29%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will change the title once the next leader after Sunak is chosen.
If they are chosen whilst the Conservative Party is in power it immediately resolves to YES.
If the Conservatives are not in power, it will resolve to YES if said leader becomes Prime Minister, and resolve to NO if they cease to be leader without doing so (Question ignores the possibility of becoming leader again)
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Interesting question! On the one hand, the Conservatives are almost always in power and most of their leaders get to be PM. On the other hand, it does look like they might be heading for a period of stumbling in the wilderness after the next election so they might go through a couple of leaders.
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