There are four remaining candidates in the running to the next leader of the Conservative Party.

They are making their pitch at the Conservative Party Conference over the next couple of days, and there are expected to be votes among the Tory MPs on the 9th and 10th of October to choose the final two members who go forward to the members.

Who will be the next candidate to be eliminated? Either becuase they come last in the third vote among MPs or because they pull out of the contest before then.

• If one of the four remaining candidates withdraws or is expelled before the next vote, the market will resolve to that candidate

• If the next vote is between the four candidates listed, the market will resolve to the candidate who gets the fewest votes and is eliminated

• If the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and another candidate drops out at the same time (eg. because they got almost as few votes and know that they can't win), the market will only resolve to the candidate who got the fewest votes

• The intention is to resolve to one candidate, but if it is impossible to separate two eliminated candidates (eg. two candidates make a joint announcement that they are withdrawing or two candidates tie for the fewest votes and both withdraw rather than drawing lots), the market will resolve 50/50 to those candidates.

Related markets:

/NoitUK/who-will-be-the-next-conservative-p

/SimonGrayson/conservative-party-leadership-conte-t74g95grt5

/SimonGrayson/will-suella-braverman-defect-to-ref