What will be true of the next permanent leader of the UK Conservative Party?
Mini
40
11k
2025
99%
Represents a seat in England
99%
Is an MP
89%
Born in 1980 or later
45%
Is an ethnic minority
45%
Supported Leave in the 2016 referendum
45%
Has been a candidate in any previous Conservative leadership election
45%
Was a candidate in the July–September 2022 leadership election
29%
Is a woman
29%
Became an MP in 2017 or later
21%
Runner-up in their constituency are Reform UK
10%
Their constituency borders exactly two Labour-held ones.
7%
Has held a Great Office of State (PM/Chancellor/Home Sec/Foreign Sec)
7%
Became an MP in 2010 or earlier
1.3%
Has a majority of > 10,000 votes
1%
Co-wrote Britannia Unchained (Truss/Kwarteng/Patel/Raab/Skidmore)
1%
Runner-up in their constituency are the Lib Dems

This market is about the next leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party in the United Kingdom (after Rishi Sunak); once the next leader is chosen, every statement that applies to them will resolve YES and every statement that is false about them will resolve NO. Interim leaders do not count. If the party changes its name, that doesn't matter, but if the party ceases to exist, everything will resolve N/A.

Feel free to add your own answers; I reserve the right to remove any that are duplicates, ambiguous or offensive.

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Is a woman

According to media reports and betting odds, the three frontrunners are Badenoch, Mordaunt, and Braverman, respectively.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader-after-rishi-sunak

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-next-tory-leadership-contest-has-already-started/

All three are female.

opened a Ṁ500 Is an ethnic minority NO at 65% order

@Lexer interesting. I'm generally betting on "nobody really has a clue at this point" and moving things closer to base rates. I've put a couple of limit orders on "female" and "ethnic minority" if you're interested

Born in 1980 or later

According to media reports and betting odds, the three frontrunners are Badenoch, Mordaunt, and Braverman,

respectively.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader-after-rishi-sunak

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-next-tory-leadership-contest-has-already-started/

Badenoch and Braverman were born in 1980, while Mordaunt was born in the 70s.