What will be true of the next permanent leader of the UK Conservative Party?
Mini
30
3.4k
2025
97%
Is an MP
90%
Represents a seat in England
83%
Supported Leave in the 2016 referendum
75%
Has been a candidate in any previous Conservative leadership election
60%
Is a woman
55%
Became an MP in 2010 or earlier
53%
Is an ethnic minority
50%
Born in 1980 or later
50%
Was a candidate in the July–September 2022 leadership election
34%
Became an MP in 2017 or later
33%
Has a majority of > 10,000 votes
32%
Runner-up in their constituency are the Lib Dems
10%
Co-wrote Britannia Unchained (Truss/Kwarteng/Patel/Raab/Skidmore)
8%
Has held a Great Office of State (PM/Chancellor/Home Sec/Foreign Sec)
8%
Is a former Prime Minister

This market is about the next leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party in the United Kingdom (after Rishi Sunak); once the next leader is chosen, every statement that applies to them will resolve YES and every statement that is false about them will resolve NO. Interim leaders do not count. If the party changes its name, that doesn't matter, but if the party ceases to exist, everything will resolve N/A.

Feel free to add your own answers; I reserve the right to remove any that are duplicates, ambiguous or offensive.

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Is a woman

According to media reports and betting odds, the three frontrunners are Badenoch, Mordaunt, and Braverman, respectively.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader-after-rishi-sunak

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-next-tory-leadership-contest-has-already-started/

All three are female.

opened a Ṁ500 Is an ethnic minority NO at 65% order

@Lexer interesting. I'm generally betting on "nobody really has a clue at this point" and moving things closer to base rates. I've put a couple of limit orders on "female" and "ethnic minority" if you're interested

Born in 1980 or later

According to media reports and betting odds, the three frontrunners are Badenoch, Mordaunt, and Braverman,

respectively.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader-after-rishi-sunak

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-next-tory-leadership-contest-has-already-started/

Badenoch and Braverman were born in 1980, while Mordaunt was born in the 70s.