There are three remaining candidates in the running to the next leader of the Conservative Party.
Jenrick was seen as the early favourite among MPs and Badenoch is seen as the members’ favourite and the candidate to beat but Cleverly has been riding a wave of momentum out of the party conference.
One of them will have to be eliminated in the final MPs’ vote which is only a day away, after which the final two candidates are put to the party’s membership.
Who will be the next candidate to be eliminated? Either because they come last in the fourth vote among MPs or because they pull out of the contest before then.
If one of the three remaining candidates withdraws or is expelled before the next vote, the market will resolve to that candidate
If the next vote is between the three candidates listed, the market will resolve to the candidate who gets the fewest votes and is eliminated
If the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and another candidate drops out at the same time (eg. because they got almost as few votes and know that they can't win), the market will only resolve to the candidate who got the fewest votes
The intention is to resolve to one candidate, but if it is impossible to separate two eliminated candidates (eg. two candidates make a joint announcement that they are withdrawing or two candidates tie for the fewest votes and both withdraw rather than drawing lots), the market will resolve 50/50 to those candidates.
Related markets:
/NoitUK/who-will-be-the-next-conservative-p
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3.00In a total shock, James Cleverly has been knocked out!
Cleverly was trading down below 2% before the vote making this statistically one of the biggest shocks I’ve seen in a UK political market on Manifold. I suspect he might have messed up by accident - “lending” votes to Jenrick to engineer a match up against him rather than a less beatable Badenoch but accidentally messing it up and knocking himself out instead!