There are three remaining candidates in the running to the next leader of the Conservative Party.
Jenrick was seen as the early favourite among MPs and Badenoch is seen as the members’ favourite and the candidate to beat but Cleverly has been riding a wave of momentum out of the party conference.
One of them will have to be eliminated in the final MPs’ vote which is only a day away, after which the final two candidates are put to the party’s membership.
Who will come top in the fourth MPs' ballot (expected to be on 10th October)?
If two candidates are tied, the market will resolve 50/50
If the vote is cancelled because one of the contenders withdraws before it can take place meaning that it is not needed, the market will resolve 50/50 to the two survivors who are due to go forward to the membership.
If the vote is cancelled because two of the contenders withdraw meaning that the surviving candidate becomes leader without any further votes being needed, the market will resolve to the surviving candidate.
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1,000
3.00Most of us thought that Cleverly had it in the bag, but he got fewer votes than expected and actually came last!
Did he try to dabble in the dark arts by lending votes to Jenrick to knock Badenoch out? If he did, it’s backfired on him!
Badenoch wins the vote and this market.