If Crispin Blunt MP is suspended from the House of Commons and the suspension meets the criteria for triggering a Recall Petition, his constituents will have the opportunity to take part in it. Should the petition succeed, a By-Election will be held for the seat. Additionally, if Crispin Blunt MP voluntarily resigns his seat, a By-Election will be directly triggered.
Resolves N/A if Crispin Blunt MP is not suspended, the suspension does not meet the criteria for a recall petition, or he does not voluntarily resign his seat.
Resolves YES if a successful recall petition or a resignation triggers a by-election.
Resolves NO if a recall petition is initiated but does not result in a By-Election.
Resolves NO if a General Election is called before any of the above conditions are met, or at a time that obviates the need for a by-election due to the proximity of the two events.
https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-crispin-blunt-be-suspended-fro?r=Tm9pdA
Related questions
If a recall petition against Blunt fails, I wouldn't say that he had left the House of Commons, so I think the title is a little misleading. And if Blunt resigns, there wouldn't be a recall petition, just a by-election, so the first sentence of the description needs correcting as well.
@lisamarsh Sorry for the delayed response, you are right. I’ve had ChatGPT tidy up my title and criteria, do you think these work now?
@Noit Does the by-election have to happen, or just be called? It’s possible that a by-election is cancelled if a general election is called after the by-election is scheduled (this happened in Manchester Gorton in 2017).
@lisamarsh I think it would resolve YES when the by-election was called as at that point I’d rather give everyone their mana. If the by-election was then cancelled by a general election I’d request a mod re-resolve to NO based on the last criteria.