With Scott Benton's resignation, a by-election is scheduled for the Blackpool South seat on 2nd May:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Blackpool_South_by-election
Blackpool South was a Labour held seat for a couple of decades, but was part of the "Red Wall" wave of Parliamentary seats which went to the Tories in the 2019 election. Manifold users are expecting the seat to go back to Labour in the by-election - /SimonGrayson/which-party-will-win-the-blackpool
This seat is also a big test for Reform UK. They've been polling between 10% and 16% nationwide and this is exactly the sort of seat they should be strong in.
Will they manage to get more than 15% of the vote in this by-election?
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ332 | |
| 2 | Ṁ89 | |
| 3 | Ṁ52 | |
| 4 | Ṁ40 | |
| 5 | Ṁ28 |
The results are in!
Labour - 58.7%
Conservative - 17.4%
Reform UK - 16.8%
In the end, Reform finished remarkably close to the Tories. They did get over 15% though, so this market resolves to YES!