Blackpool south by-election - Will Reform UK get above 15%?
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540Ṁ6071resolved May 3
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With Scott Benton's resignation, a by-election is scheduled for the Blackpool South seat on 2nd May:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Blackpool_South_by-election
Blackpool South was a Labour held seat for a couple of decades, but was part of the "Red Wall" wave of Parliamentary seats which went to the Tories in the 2019 election. Manifold users are expecting the seat to go back to Labour in the by-election - /SimonGrayson/which-party-will-win-the-blackpool
This seat is also a big test for Reform UK. They've been polling between 10% and 16% nationwide and this is exactly the sort of seat they should be strong in.
Will they manage to get more than 15% of the vote in this by-election?
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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