Michael Gove is under investigation by the Parliamentary standards watchdog for failing to declare hospitality from a donor who was awarded over £100,000,000 in Covid PPE contracts:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/29/michael-gove-under-investigation-by-standards-watchdog

If he is found to have breached the rules and given a lengthy suspension from the Commons, this could trigger a by-election in his seat of Surrey Heath.

Will a by-election take place before the next general election?

• If a by-election takes place, the market will resolve to YES

• If Parliament is dissolved for a general election before any by-election is announced, the market will resolve to NO

• If a by-election is announced but cancelled because Parliament has been dissolved for a general election, this market resolves to NO

Related market:

/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd