Will the Conservative Party win fewer than 165 seats at the next General Election? (their worst performance since 1906)
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In 1997, Tony Blair won a landslide majority and crushed the Conservatives leaving them on just 165 seats.

This was the lowest seat total recorded for the second largest party since 1935 and the lowest seat total for the Tories since 1906.

The Tories are trailing in the polls and showing poorly in by-elections and local elections. There is speculation that they could do even worse than they did in 1997.

The election has to take place within the next 11 months - you can bet on exactly when it will happen here - /SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd

Will they win 164 or fewer seats?

Resolution notes:

  • This market will resolve based on the results of the General Election. Any subsequent by-elections or candidates who do not take up their seats will not affect the market.

  • Independent candidates will not count towards the total, even if they indicate that they will be voting with the Conservatives

  • If the Conservative Party changes its name or is modified/changes in a way that means that there is a clear successor party, this market will apply to that party

  • If the Conservative Party disbands in a way which means that there is no clear successor party, this market will resolve to YES

  • If the Conservative Party splits into two or more parties, this market will apply to the largest of those successor parties

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Now that numerical markets are back, @Anthem has set this question up as a numerical market:

/Anthem/how-many-seats-will-the-conservativ-89c852a83f80

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