If Crispin Blunt MP is suspended from the House of Commons and the suspension meets the criteria for triggering a Recall Petition, his constituents will have the opportunity to take part in it. Should the petition succeed, a By-Election will be held for the seat. Additionally, if Crispin Blunt MP voluntarily resigns his seat, a By-Election will be directly triggered.

Resolves N/A if Crispin Blunt MP is not suspended, the suspension does not meet the criteria for a recall petition, or he does not voluntarily resign his seat.

Resolves YES if a successful recall petition or a resignation triggers a by-election.

Resolves NO if a recall petition is initiated but does not result in a By-Election.

Resolves NO if a General Election is called before any of the above conditions are met, or at a time that obviates the need for a by-election due to the proximity of the two events.

https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-crispin-blunt-be-suspended-fro?r=Tm9pdA

Will Crispin Blunt be suspended from the House of Commons?

33% chance. Conservative MP Crispin Blunt has confirmed that he was arrested on Wednesday in connection with an allegation of rape. This question resolves YES if a motion is put before the House of Commons to suspend Crispin Blunt for any length of time, and this vote is either passed “on the nod” or by a vote. Resolves NO if no such motion is tabled or passed before the next General Election is held, or if Crispin Blunt resigns as Reigate’s member of parliament.