Will the White British ethnic group as defined by the UK ONS 2021 Census, being either genetically and ethnically English, Welsh, Scottish or Northern Irish, become a minority in the United Kingdom by the year 2060?. Oxford demographer David Coleman predicted so in 2013, that based on the current immigration and fertility trends, White British would be a minority by 2066.
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There's real risk the questions change and this question becomes ambiguous. e.g. It looks like today respondents cannot check multiple ethnicities, so anyone who is "white british" + anything else gets in some sort of mixed or "white other" group.
If multiple ethnicities can be checked in the future, it requires that reporting still shows people that checked only one to resolve this under the same definition as today.
it's worth spelling out even mor clearly than it already is that "White British" excludes categories like "White other" which is presumably mostly European immigrants. Whether their children call themselves "White British" and whether a large stream of European immigrants continue to come to Britain is likely to be as much of a determining factor as immigration from other non-white sources.
Current question wording will probably lead children of immigrants to identify ethnically as British rather than as the home country of their parents. So they would not be "genetically" English but would be ethnically British, through self-identification.
For that reason I'm going to switch my bet.
@B Honestly the White Other population (6%) is neglible compared to non-white pop which has a higher TFR than White pop (British & Other), and now makes up most of immigration to the UK.
@anglosaxon yes, but when you're taking about a figure that's likely to be just over or under 50%, 6% makes quite a bit of difference.
I guess a bit of a punt either way, but I think you have to adjust any pre-brexit prediction of white British % population a few percentage points up.
@B Yes, immigration has ironically increased since Brexit aswell, and less Europeans than before.
@anglosaxon that would change the situation, but this site says immigration overall has decreased quite noticeably since brexit, even if the number of non Europeans hss increased (it doesn't say, but I'd believe that).
I suppose an increase in non Europeans will work to increase the proportion of non-white British, because their children will never be white British (they'll be something else British) which is evidence for the case in favour of the overall market.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/net-migration
@B Immigration has increased over the 2010s, that macrotrends graph is innacurate. Did you not also see the BBC statistic that 30% of births in the UK are to foreign born mothers? Its pretty clear. This is replacement migration.
https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingdecember2022#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20long%2Dterm%20immigration,(from%20895%2C000%20to%20942%2C000).
@anglosaxon okay, your graph clearly shows immigration has increased post brexit, but I'm not convinced the graph shows a long term trend. It looks like a dip in 2020, then an increase in 2021 that could have been extra people who had deferred their 2020 immigration plans, then a 2022 increase.
So we are clear, I do agree that non-EU migration has increased. Your links were pretty clear about the policy drivers for that.
I didn't see the bbc stat. 33% to foreign born mothers sounds vaguely plausible considering 15% of the population are foreign born, that of birthing age women, a grater proportion will be foreign born and their fertility will be higher than locals.
@anglosaxon the replacement thing is interesting. I agree that in some countries, like new Zealand where I am from, policymakers tend to want to supplement the low numbers of native born workers with foreign born workers in order to maintain the tax base. This is then sometimes celebrated by people who value ethnic diversity for its own sake. I think the part of great replacement theory that rings false is that white Western women aren't having have fewer children because of a conspiracy, it's because of global forces and trends that also influence women everywhere to have fewer children. Even though feminism probably has encouraged women to pick lifestyles that involve fewer children...the fact even women im Japan and China, where feminism isn't very successful, aso have fewer children suggests it's not feminism doing the work.
@B do you not see as this trend continues, theres going to be interesting questions asked about ethnic self determination in what you could say is ones own country.
@B Yes its not a conspiracy, its just happening, whether by capital wanting to increase labour supply, especially low skilled labour, or social movements encouraging ethnic diversity. Its highly doubtful its a full blown centralised conspiracy. Its more likely its a combination of state policy to treat citizens like economic units, not a people, and handwaivy attitudes towards cultural clashes, with left wing social ideas about cultural and ethnic diversity along with guilt-tripping about colonialism.
Ultimately I am a liberal and in theory support open borders, but I try to approach the topic with honesty.
Regarding culture clash, I do think that Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have been very successful in minimizing cultural clashes arising from immigration through their skills-oriented points based systems. I think the UK will reap the benefits of that as it pivots away from the EU towards a similar skills based approach.
It's a bit more chaotic in the USA but I think in the long run the USA will continue to be successful in integrating foreign migration. Imo immigrants to the US, low skilled and high skilled, are self-made, ambitious types, and they will ultimately reinforce rather than undermine the American meritocratic ideology. Sorry for the essay!
My response to folks worried about demographic takeover is generally something like--focus on yourself, figure out what you need to do to have your own kids and then go do that. I just had a daughter four months ago, and she's gorgeous. You alone can secure a future for your own children!
No one would want to emigrate to that country if it weren’t for economic reasons, and I don’t think they will be in a good economic state then
Barring some unforeseen massive event like a nuclear strike on the UK destroying the country, or the <0.1% chance of some sufficiently anti-immigration party being elected and actually imposing both immigration/migration restrictions and introducing a remigration/deportation/repatriation scheme, this is an inevitability. The only question is: how long will it take to happen? Will potentially happen sooner than 2060 at this rate, to be honest. Same thing happening across the globe in most western nations at the moment.
/JamesBills/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6e8e547afa66
I guess that would resolve this market YES, because there would be no Brits of any color and there would be at least one AI? Or maybe n/a if we're not counting AIs in the census?
What happens if there is no longer a UK?
@MartinRandall I’d argue N/A because minority status is in relation to other human ethnic groups, if there are no humans then it’s indeterminate.
@anglosaxon oh, and we're talking numerical minority, right, not some alternate definition? So <50%?
@MartinRandall Yes, Ethnic British are a minority in London currently 40ish% but 80% of total pop of England and Wales