WEIRD = Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Developed.
List of WEIRD countries for the purposes of this market:
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
France
Greece
Germany
Iceland
Italy
Latvia
Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
Successful means the attackers must stay in government for more than six months.
@YaakovSaxon Only if the coup was part of or precipitated the invasion; an annexation is not a coup, even if it happens quickly.
Related:
https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/which-country-will-have-the-next-co
https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i
https://manifold.markets/wasabipesto/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i-5047057f4ade
https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-there-be-an-attempted-autogolp
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-the-un
https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-weird-country-experience-a
https://manifold.markets/MathieuPutz/will-30000-people-die-in-a-us-civil
https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-vice-president-with-the-cabi
https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-of-the-following-weird-cou-b07b8b698192
https://manifold.markets/dreev/trump-coup-2025-conditional-on-a-de
https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-there-be-a-coup-attempt-that-k
(No way to copy-paste a market grid, so I'm just providing links.)
@Lorxus Palace coups count, as long as it they are visibly extralegal. I would not mark Hitler's Enabling Act as a successful coup, for example, even though it led to regime change.
@DeanValentine Ah. No bet, then. Almost all my probability mass for "any of these countries have an abrupt regime change" is in "someone does a LOT of lawfare about it".