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MANIFOLD
Will US datacenter electricity demand exceed 6% of total US electricity by year-end 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ21
2027
34%
chance

Resolves YES if, by 2027-03-31, the EIA (Energy Information Administration) or Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBL) publishes data indicating that US datacenter electricity consumption in calendar year 2026 exceeded 6% of total US electricity consumption.

Source of truth (must be one of):

  • EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2027 or EIA Monthly Energy Review covering calendar-2026 datacenter electricity figures

  • LBL US Data Center Energy Usage Report (next publication after the 2024 report)

  • Equivalent EIA or LBL public dataset showing 2026 datacenter electricity / total US electricity ratio

If neither EIA nor LBL has published 2026 data by 2027-03-31, market resolves based on the most recent EIA / LBL projection that explicitly projects calendar-2026, with consumption exceeding 6% of total = YES.

The 6% threshold is on a 12-month-aggregate basis (full-year 2026 datacenter TWh / full-year 2026 total US TWh).

Resolution date: 2027-03-31.


About this market. This market is part of SCB/SCO Reference Run #001 — AI Compute (30-day longitudinal demonstration) under Leadership Under Uncertainty. It is a research-demonstration corpus, not a commercial product.

Open-Sources-Only Commitment. This market resolves only against publicly accessible sources (SEC filings, government data, public benchmark publications, public corporate communications). Subscription-gated analyst content is not used in resolution.

Creator-is-not-trader. The creator of this market does not place trades on it. Probabilities reflect community trading.

Pre-registration. Question wording, resolution criteria, and close date were locked before any market data was observed and cryptographically anchored on day 0 of the run via the SCB/SCO daily Merkle seal. See protocol.

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