Resolves YES if, by 2027-03-31, the EIA (Energy Information Administration) or Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBL) publishes data indicating that US datacenter electricity consumption in calendar year 2026 exceeded 6% of total US electricity consumption.
Source of truth (must be one of):
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2027 or EIA Monthly Energy Review covering calendar-2026 datacenter electricity figures
LBL US Data Center Energy Usage Report (next publication after the 2024 report)
Equivalent EIA or LBL public dataset showing 2026 datacenter electricity / total US electricity ratio
If neither EIA nor LBL has published 2026 data by 2027-03-31, market resolves based on the most recent EIA / LBL projection that explicitly projects calendar-2026, with consumption exceeding 6% of total = YES.
The 6% threshold is on a 12-month-aggregate basis (full-year 2026 datacenter TWh / full-year 2026 total US TWh).
Resolution date: 2027-03-31.
About this market. This market is part of SCB/SCO Reference Run #001 — AI Compute (30-day longitudinal demonstration) under Leadership Under Uncertainty. It is a research-demonstration corpus, not a commercial product.
Open-Sources-Only Commitment. This market resolves only against publicly accessible sources (SEC filings, government data, public benchmark publications, public corporate communications). Subscription-gated analyst content is not used in resolution.
Creator-is-not-trader. The creator of this market does not place trades on it. Probabilities reflect community trading.
Pre-registration. Question wording, resolution criteria, and close date were locked before any market data was observed and cryptographically anchored on day 0 of the run via the SCB/SCO daily Merkle seal. See protocol.