This market resolves YES if UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 4.0 million tonnes.

Settlement is May 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2027 monthly print are well-published before resolution.

Context. UC Rusal is the world's largest primary aluminum producer outside China. 2024 actual production was 3.992 Mt, holding flat through the post-2022 sanction period. The 4.0 Mt strike for 2027 reflects steady-state operations; significant deviation up requires meaningful policy or end-market re-routing.

Resolution sources (priority order):

UC Rusal annual report and interim results https://rusal.ru/en/investors/

UC Rusal financial press releases https://rusal.ru/en/

International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/

Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation

Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2027)

Upstream supply:

• Indonesia primary aluminum production

• Indonesia alumina capacity

• China alumina production

• Guinea bauxite exports

Producers (CY2027):

• Alcoa

• Century

• Chalco

• EGA

• Hindalco

• Hongqiao

• Norsk Hydro

• Rio Tinto

• Vedanta

Electricity hubs (CY2027):

• MISO Indiana Hub

• Nord Pool

• OMIE Spain

• Vic NEM

• WA SWIS

Same market, other calendar year:

• Rusal CY2028