This market resolves YES if Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 2.8 million tonnes.

Settlement is May 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2027 monthly print are well-published before resolution.

Context. Emirates Global Aluminium is the largest non-China primary aluminum producer in the Middle East, with smelters at Jebel Ali and Al Taweelah (UAE). 2024 production was 2.69 Mt — a record, up modestly from 2.66 Mt in 2023. The 2.8 Mt strike for 2027 reflects modest UAE-base growth; the Century-EGA Inola JV (Oklahoma) starts contributing from 2028 onward and is not material to 2027.

Resolution sources (priority order):

EGA annual financial results press release https://www.ega.ae/en/

EGA media center / production milestone announcements https://media.ega.ae/

International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/

Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation

Related markets — upstream aluminum supply chain (also live on Manifold):

Guinea bauxite exports for calendar year 2027 → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-guineas-bauxite-exports-for-th

China alumina production for calendar year 2027 → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-chinas-alumina-production-for

Indonesia commissioned alumina refinery capacity (Dec 31, 2027) → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-indonesias-commissioned-alumin

Indonesia primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-indonesias-primary-aluminum-pr

Related markets — other major producers, calendar year 2027:

Alcoa Corporation → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-alcoa-corporations-primary-alu

Century Aluminum → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-century-aluminums-primary-alum

Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-chalcos-primary-aluminum-produ

Hindalco Industries → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-hindalco-industriess-primary-a

China Hongqiao Group → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-china-hongqiao-groups-primary

Norsk Hydro → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-norsk-hydros-primary-aluminum

Rio Tinto → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-rio-tintos-primary-aluminum-pr

UC Rusal → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-uc-rusals-primary-aluminum-pro

Vedanta Aluminium → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-vedanta-aluminium-vedanta-limi

Related markets — same producer, other calendar year:

Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-emirates-global-aluminium-egas-hy2gyQZ66S