Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on whether an agreed-upon ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine lasts for its entire specified duration without significant violations:

• If the ceasefire agreement is permanent (with no specified end date), this market will resolve YES if the ceasefire holds without significant violations for at least 1 year after implementation.

• If the ceasefire has a specific duration (e.g., 30 days, 6 months), the market resolves YES if the ceasefire holds for that entire period without clear violations.

• The market resolves NO if either party officially withdraws from the ceasefire or if there are military operations that constitute clear violations of the ceasefire terms.

• For resolution purposes, "significant violations" include artillery strikes, missile attacks, ground offensives, or other military actions that both sides acknowledge or that are widely reported by credible international sources.

• Minor skirmishes or isolated incidents that don't lead to the official collapse of the ceasefire will not be considered significant violations.

• The market resolves N/A if no ceasefire agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine.