Background

The United States has been a significant supporter of Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Recently, there have been diplomatic efforts to negotiate a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. has temporarily paused and then resumed military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine as part of these diplomatic maneuvers.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has confirmed that the U.S. has resumed military assistance and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. The U.S. administration has indicated it will present proposals discussed with Ukraine to Russian officials, suggesting ongoing diplomatic pressure on Russia to agree to a ceasefire.

President Trump has expressed a desire for a ceasefire but has also acknowledged that if Russia refuses, the conflict could continue. European allies continue to provide security guarantees to Ukraine.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, following Russia's rejection of or failure to agree to the proposed ceasefire, the United States:

• Announces new military aid packages for Ukraine

• Increases the value or scope of existing military assistance

• Expands intelligence sharing or other non-military support that directly aids Ukraine's war efforts

The market will resolve to NO if:

• Russia rejects the ceasefire and the U.S. maintains current levels of support without increases

• The U.S. reduces support for Ukraine despite Russia's rejection of the ceasefire

• The U.S. withdraws support entirely

For clarity, "more assistance" means an increase in quantity, quality, or scope of aid compared to what was being provided immediately before Russia's rejection of the ceasefire proposal.

• Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the condition of Russia's "failure to agree" to a proposed ceasefire:

  • This will be considered to have occurred if Russia does not meaningfully agree within 6 months of a ceasefire proposal being on the table.

  • This 6-month period will be reset if Ukraine attacks Russia.