Background
The United States has been a significant supporter of Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Recently, there have been diplomatic efforts to negotiate a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. has temporarily paused and then resumed military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine as part of these diplomatic maneuvers.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has confirmed that the U.S. has resumed military assistance and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. The U.S. administration has indicated it will present proposals discussed with Ukraine to Russian officials, suggesting ongoing diplomatic pressure on Russia to agree to a ceasefire.
President Trump has expressed a desire for a ceasefire but has also acknowledged that if Russia refuses, the conflict could continue. European allies continue to provide security guarantees to Ukraine.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to YES if, following Russia's rejection of or failure to agree to the proposed ceasefire, the United States:
Announces new military aid packages for Ukraine
Increases the value or scope of existing military assistance
Expands intelligence sharing or other non-military support that directly aids Ukraine's war efforts
The market will resolve to NO if:
Russia rejects the ceasefire and the U.S. maintains current levels of support without increases
The U.S. reduces support for Ukraine despite Russia's rejection of the ceasefire
The U.S. withdraws support entirely
For clarity, "more assistance" means an increase in quantity, quality, or scope of aid compared to what was being provided immediately before Russia's rejection of the ceasefire proposal.
Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the condition of Russia's "failure to agree" to a proposed ceasefire:
This will be considered to have occurred if Russia does not meaningfully agree within 6 months of a ceasefire proposal being on the table.
This 6-month period will be reset if Ukraine attacks Russia.
Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The meeting on August 15th will not be considered a "proposed ceasefire" for the purposes of this market's resolution criteria.
Update 2025-11-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will continue indefinitely until there is a strong news article regarding a ceasefire proposal, after which the creator will wait to see if Russia agrees or not. The market will not resolve to N/A due to extended waiting periods.
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@PrijwalNaidu should we consider the meeting on Aug 15th as a "proposed ceasefire"? It was reportedly discussed there, though I'm not sure if that corresponds to your definition of "proposed".
@PrijwalNaidu thanks for clarifying. If the current state of affairs of Russia not really agreeing, not really disagreeing, just making token gestures while continuing the war, will go on indefinitely, or at least for a couple more years, will the market just remain open, resolve to NA or something else? I know I asked a similar question previously and you said 6 months, but it's been more than 6 months now.
@SurvivalBias gonna continue indefinitely. waiting for a strong news article regarding a ceasefire. Then waiting to see if Russia agrees or not.
@PrijwalNaidu thank you for clarification. In that case, do you have a time limit in what to call this outcome? E.g. if they still don't meaningfully agree to anything within a year or two years?
@AlexanderPetukhov if Russia doesn’t meaningfully agree within 6 months. However this “6 months” will be reset if Ukraine attacks Russia.