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MANIFOLD
will Russia win the war in Ukraine
33
Ṁ1kṀ3.9k
2028
38%
chance

will resolve after a peace agreement that gives up some territory (and then in a few years a Russian puppet is installed) or Total surrender

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I think they just got a huge boost. What qualifies as win though? A peace agreement that gives up some territory (and then in a few years a Russian puppet is installed)? Total surrender?