Will more than ten "national level" politicians in any single western country be killed within twelve months of each other before 2030?
Plus
13
Ṁ4322030
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
National-level politicians meaning:
Reigning Monarchs
Heads of state
Cabinent Secretaries/Ministers
National legislators
Supreme court justices or equivalent
Attorneys General or equivalent
List of WEIRD countries for the purposes of this market:
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
France
Greece
Germany
Iceland
Italy
Latvia
Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will any of the following Western countries experience a national homicide rate above 10 per 100,000 per year before 2030?
40% chance
Will another US president be killed before 2060?
38% chance
Will there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
68% chance
Will any world leaders be assassinated by the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will a politician be assassinated by a Group 1 drone in a WEIRD country before end of Q1 2025?
16% chance
Will a sitting or former US President be killed by 2030?
17% chance
Will any Western countries go to war against each other before 2070?
52% chance
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?
35% chance
Any US president (current or former) is assassinated before 2030?
10% chance
Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030?
16% chance