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MANIFOLD
Will there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
12
Ṁ190Ṁ295
2030
75%
chance

So far there have been 2 assassinations (Idriss Déby of Chad, Jovenel Moïse of Haiti).

Resolves according to this list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassinated_and_executed_heads_of_state_and_government

Executions count too, if it ends up on this article it counts. Only incumbent heads of state, so Shinzo Abe's assassination doesn't count.

If the wikipedia list is deleted or has the criteria for inclusion significantly changed, resolves according to the same guidelines it has at market creation (deaths of incumbent heads of government/state from execution/assassination) as faithfully as possible according to my judgement.

I will not bet.

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It seems the criteria for inclusion are somewhat fluid and unrigorous. I will trade however as the wikipedia list was authoritative for now, though not high stakes. Just to update by the by, now at present four, but two of those marked as disputed, so it is messy. @FreshFrier maybe clarify if the removed listing mentioned as counting ecplicitly in the description still counts, and how are we to approach al-Da'alis and al-Rahawi?

Hmm Idris is not on the list, despite you explicitly stating he counts.