Exhibit A: https://manifold.markets/JamesDillard/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th

Exhibit B: https://manifold.markets/Odoacre/will-proof-emerge-that-the-world-is

Exhibit C: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-market-still-exist-in-210

There are many others.

Some other examples that didn't reach the 50 traders mark:

• https://manifold.markets/MasonMaternowski/will-lulu-close-below-300-per-share

• https://manifold.markets/connorcash/did-the-world-become-more-authorita

• https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/at-the-beginning-of-2032-will-jeann

These seem to fall into two distinct categories:

• Markets where people knowingly bet "irrationally" for fun or to signal something.

• Markets where people are lazy and don't look up easily-found information, just betting on "vibes" that turn out to be wrong.

Both count as problems for the purpose of this market. If any of those still exist (in markets with at least 50 traders) at the end of 2024, this resolves NO. Otherwise I'll wait a few months to see if any probabilities that existed at the end of 2024 are discovered to have been nonsense (with information that was publically available at the time.)

The issues around extreme probabilites are separate and therefore ignored for the purposes of this market; if the correct probability is 0.0001% and the actual market is at 0.5%, that still counts as "correct enough" for this market's resolution.