Will proof emerge that the world is ruled by lizard people?
66
267
1.3K
2032
2%
chance

The mere existence of lizard people is not enough for this to resolve YES, they need to be shown to rule the world.

Examples that qualify would be any of the below being exposed as a lizard person:

  • Ruler of state

  • High government official such as an US senator

  • High religious figure such as the Pope or the Dalai Lama

  • Someone in the top 25 richest people in the world

  • High ranking military officer(s).

I'm not sure what exactly could constitute as proof, I guess we'll know it when we see it. Ultimately the proof needs to be good enough to actually convince me.

Close date updated to 2033-01-01 10:59 am

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Plot twist: new AI models called Lizards released by one of the big players, iteratively integrated into society over 5 years as they get ever closer to AGI and their avatars in the metaverse are referred to as Lizard People by humans, and they do indeed, rule the world

@firstuserhere New AI safety approach... name the AIs Lizard and the conspiracy theorists will get so mad they'll make damn sure the AIs never get anywhere near ruling the world.

predicts NO

@firstuserhere I’m actually avoiding betting to much NO on this market because that could happen, which I know is irrational… but I don’t want to put all my eggs in one basket, right? RIGHT?

bought Ṁ50 of YES

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Lol

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Does this ever resolve NO?

@a It might, for example if it's proven that lizard people exist, but they shun world leadership

@Odoacre Could you give a more comprehensive set of conditions under which this will resolve NO?

predicts YES

@Odoacre technically due to the problem of induction this question can never truly be resolved since ad hoc justifications can always be added

@EA42 do you mean a situation like the one described here ? https://youtu.be/IuACp2X7D54?t=114

@IsaacKing

by default it will resolve NO if by market close no proof has emerged of the lizard people rulers.

Other possible conditions that would qualify for NO:

  • the world is rulerless

  • lizard people don't exist

  • the world is proven to be ruled by something that's not a lizard person/people (humans don't count for this, but AI would)

  • the world does not exist or is an illusion or simulation (in this case, even if the simulation is run by lizard people, still NO)

someone has pointed out that the rule of induction makes it impossible to arrive to a definite answer, but I am a simple guy, and I commit to stopping at the first layer. If we find out the lizard people are ruling the world, but it later turns out the lizard people in fact are themselves being impersonated (enlizarded?) by cordyceps fungi or something else I'm going with YES.